WEMA BANK – WEEK ENDED 6TH NOVEMBER 2026: Breakout Attempt Holds After Q3 Results
Price Snapshot
• Close: N32.50k, up +1.56% WoW
• Open: N32.00 | High: N32.75 | Low: N31.15
• YTD: +59.31% | QTD: +3.17% | MTD / WTD: +1.56%
• 52-Week Range: N17.10 – N36.00
• 2-Week Gain: +8.4% combined with prior week +6.67%
Major Highlights – Wema
• Best Bank of the Week: Wema was the top gainer in banking, ahead of Stanbic +0.31%. Only 2 banks gained. FBNH -7.68%, AccessCorp -5.94%, Fidelity -2.71% led losers.
• Outperformed a Falling Market: NGX ASI fell -2.13% to 248,877.22, wiping N3.52trn off market cap to N161.59trn. Banking Index fell -2.45%. Wema rose +1.56% against that.
• Post-Q3 Test Passed: Stock dipped briefly after Q3 results to mean price N31.53 on 3rd Nov, then rose every session to N32.49 on 6th Nov. Unlike after H1 in July, there was no sell-the-news exit. Dip was absorbed by buyers.
• Technical Breakout – Almost Confirmed: Weekly high N32.75 is the first print through the N32.0 – N32.5 ceiling that capped it in Sept and Oct. Close at N32.50 is the highest weekly close in the period, but sits exactly on N32.5, not above N32.75. Need a weekly close above N32.75 to confirm.
- Higher Lows, Lower Volatility: Low of N31.15 is a clearly higher low vs N29.2, N29.0, N30.1 in prior weeks. Range narrowed to N1.60 from N3.30 last week. RSI up to 59.92 from 58.45, still below 70 overbought.
• Volume Cooled But Resilient: 26.78m shares, down -19.54% WoW from 33.28m. Heaviest volume 7.6m was on 3rd Nov, the price low. Market volume fell -63%, so Wema’s share of market volume roughly doubled from 0.4% to 0.9%. Advance on lighter volume means breakout not yet backed by expanding participation.
• Fundamentals – Q3 Anchor: 9M PBT +76.62% to N258.64bn, PAT +72.56% to N219.84bn, Gross Earnings +45.72% to N673.24bn. Q3 PBT N104.08bn, ∼27% above Q2 and >2x Q3 2025. Total Assets N7.43trn vs N5.07trn at Dec. Fair-value gains N10.42bn vs N1.07bn.
• Qualifiers: EPS fell -1.06% to 730.63k despite PAT +72.56%, due to enlarged post-recapitalization share count. Interest expense +35.60% to N217.68bn almost kept pace with interest income +37.21%. Loan growth outpaced deposit growth. At N32.50, annualized 9M EPS implies ∼3.3x earnings, undemanding.
Outlook / Levels to Watch
Level Significance
N32.75 Confirmation – weekly close above opens N34 – N36
N36.00 Major Resistance – July high
N31.15 First Support – this week’s low
N30.00 Key Support – held since mid-Sept
N27.59 – N27.96 Trend Support – 50-week EMA + support band, break below = trend break
Catalyst: Dangote Refinery IPO allotment expected ∼11th Nov, refunds within 5 business days, should return liquidity to equities.
• Base Case: Grind higher toward N34, with pullbacks bought at N31 – N32.
• Risk: Continued broad market sell-off, and breakout failing on low volume.
Recommendation: BUY
Tunde Sobamowo
FINANCIAL ADVISOR &STOCKBROKER
DISCLAIMER:FOR RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY
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